Semi-prospective predictions

As Federer and Nadal wrestle over the first set of their Australian Open semi-final- a match whose materialization is a particularly-remarkable occurrence in that it represents the first instance in which these two have been so much as drawn in the same half of a Major draw since the 2005 French Open (including the last year, during which time they were not the top two seeds, but the draws continued to yield the same Nadal/Murray and Federer/Djokovic semifinal pairings which have predominated for the last several years, arousing the suspicions of some fans)- I wish to offer a brief list of predictions for the world's top four players, and for the 2011 season as a whole:

-I expect Djokovic to win at least one Major, and possibly two, but probably not three or more as with last year. During the the Open Era of tennis (the late 1960s through present), let it be noted, Rod Laver won all four Majors in 1969, but failed to win any the following season; Jimmy Connors won three of the four Majors in 1974, but failed to win any the following season; and Rafael Nadal won three of the four Majors in 2010, but won only one the following season. Only the historically-unique Roger Federer has ever been able to replicate such a season- and great as he clearly is, I do not ultimately believe Djokovic to be another Federer. Winning percentage in the mid-to-upper 80s, favorite to retain the world's-number-one ranking.

-I give Nadal better-than-50% odds at capturing another major this season, and better-than-a-one-in-three likelihood for two; he must fairly be accounted the favorite at the French Open (albeit not nearly so securely as in past seasons to my mind), and among the top three choices for each of the other Majors.

-Here, I will make a rare mildly-bold prediction and forecast a Roger Federer Major championship in 2012. It may be that the temporary momentum generated by Roger's recent winning streak is skewing my judgment, but as I expect Djokovic will probably not be able to replicate last year's superhuman standard of play, and Nadal will likely be up and down with injuries and fluctuations in form, the window appears open to me for an inspired Federer to seize the day at least once. With two-thirds' likelihood, Federer to win at least one Grand Slam title.

-Now, having all but already predicted away all four Majors between the top three, I have left little room here for Scotland's Andy Murray; however, remembering that each of the above were mere "probabilities" allowing sizable gaps, I will grant that Murray- under the tutelage of Ivan Lendl, whose career through Murray's age was strikingly similar to that of said newly-acquired protege- may finally be ready to perform at the crucial moment. This year, I allot Murray roughly a 40% likelihood of claiming a Major title, but will make an exception here and extend my forecast to give him a 60% chance at securing one sometime within the next two years. I will also state that I am on his side, inasmuch as his continual frustration over the last three-and-a-half years has earned my sympathy, and that I most earnestly hope (even as I doubt) that he can upset Djokovic tomorrow night.

A few more miscellaneous predictions:

-Raonic to reach the quarterfinals at either Wimbledon or the US Open (better than 50%)
-Roddick to return to the top 10 (better than 50%)
-Ferrer to fall from the top 5 (better than two-thirds)
-At least one "surprise" finalist to reappear in a Grand Slam (remembering that the last five Major finals have been contested exclusively by members of the big four)

2008 Redux?

It has been three years since last a Grand Slam final was contested without at least one of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal numbering among its participants. The 2008 Australian Open saw both crash out in straight sets against inspired foes, paving the way for Novak Djokovic, who was fresh off a runner-up finish at the preceding US Open, and who upset Federer in the semifinals, to claim his first- and, to date, only- career Grand Slam title. As I write, fate seems poised, perhaps, to offer us an eery echo of that peculiar turn of events gone by. Nadal, injured and despondent, has fallen to compatriot David Ferrer, while Djokovic, once again riding the crest of a run to the US Open final, is locked in another Melbourne semifinal with Federer, wherein he has won the first set, and has looked every bit the dynamic and versatile player who claimed the title here three years ago. All the crucial pieces are in place for history to repeat itself.

It has often been the case, however, that the course of events, in unfolding, will tantalize its observers, dangling the prospect of a particular narrative before us, only to unceremoniously withdraw back into the ether that which it once seemed to promise. Should Federer manage to rally in this match, said course may divert itself towards the path it followed last year, when Federer faced down Andy Murray- who stands as a firm favorite in his own semifinal with Ferrer- on this same grand stage.