The Streak Phenomenon and its Predictive Application

With Djokovic and Nadal embroiled in their second consecutive Masters Series final, I am once again inclined to favor the Spaniard. I will further state that the strength of the "Djokovic-for-year-end-number-one" movement, endorsed by figures as prominent as, for example, Patrick McEnroe (who predicts another Djokovic Grand Slam title this season along with a number one finish) reflects the strong tendency among tennis fandom to project a player's current form out across the future in a way which very seldom pans out.

For example, note that in early 2008, Djokovic also won both the Australian Open- defeating Federer in the process- and Indian Wells- defeating Nadal in the process- and was also widely feted as favorite to finish as year-end number one; as it happened, however, Djokovic failed to appear in another Grand Slam final for the remainder of the season and finished the year at world's number three. The next season, Nadal won both the Australian Open and Indian Wells, and was widely ballyhooed as a contender for the calendar Grand Slam that year; as it happened, however, Nadal failed to so much as appear in another Grand Slam final for the remainder of the season, and finished 2009 ranked world's number two. The year after that, it was Federer who won the Australian Open, and who was, once again, slated by many for a year-end number one finish and potential calendar Grand Slam; as it happened, however, Federer failed to so much as reach another Grand Slam final for the remainder of the season, and finished 2010 ranked world's number two.

It is thus the case that in none of the last three years has the Australian Open champion gone on to finish the season as world's number one, nor to win another Grand Slam title, nor even to make another final therein. This also holds true in the two of these seasons (2008 and 2009) which saw the Australian Open winner proceed to claim the Indian Wells title. Now, this is not to say that winning the Australian Open and Indian Wells somehow actively decreases one's likelihood of finishing the season at world's number one, but it is to say that it does not seem to be the predictor of season-long performance standard and year-end ranking which many treat it as.

Now, if Djokovic should win today, completing a trifecta of year-to-date titles in major tournaments, I will perhaps promote him to co-favorite for the year-end number one ranking, but at present, I will regard Nadal as favorite both for the match and the season.