Novak Djokovic: Witch?

I needn't remind readers alert to the goings-on of professional tennis that Novak Djokovic is currently on the brink of becoming the first man in over 40 years to win four Majors consecutively; weather-allowing, he will in a matter of hours complete the 2012 French Open final against Rafael Nadal, and should he manage to win the two remaining sets necessary, the task will be complete.
What does need further exposition, I think, is the utterly surreal character of this situation. Within these last four Grand Slam events, Djokovic has been:

-down two-sets-to-none, and later two match points, against Roger Federer, but rallied to win 7-5 in the fifth set

-down two-sets-to-one against Andy Murray, who later had break points to serve for the match, but rallied to win 7-5 in the fifth set

-down 4-2, *30-15 in the fifth set against Rafael Nadal, but rallied to win it 7-5

-down two-sets-to-none to Andreas Seppi in the current French Open, but rallied to win in five

-down two-sets-to-one and four match points against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the current French Open, but rallied to win in five

-down two-sets-to-none and a break against Rafael Nadal, the greatest clay-court player in history, having lost the last six consecutive games, but rallied to turn the match on its head, winning eight straight to put himself up a break in the fourth...

Now, one might rightly attribute much of this to determination, to will-power, to fighting spirit-- attributes Djokovic certainly possesses in richest abundance-- but this alone does not seem to me sufficient to account for the unprecedented set of data before us. Heart may enable you to pull off a remarkable comeback every now and again, but in a world-elite tennis match, it simply isn't all in your own hands; players on that level are capable of hitting tennis balls in such fashion that no human can return them. Generally, when one is down two sets to none and/or facing multiple match points, it is because his opponent is simply better at doing so on that particular day, and there is nothing he can do about it-- the very fact that one has fallen so desperately far behind is a strong indication that he is not capable of winning the match as things stand. This is why even a bona fide embodiment of will-power such as Lleyton Hewitt, though he has pulled off many a stunning comeback in his day, usually does not do so. Generally, when a world-elite professional tennis player, especially a Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal, leads by two sets to none or is up a break in the fifth and holds multiple match points, he is going to end the match, and there is more or less nothing his opponent can conceivably do about it.

I would say all of the above seems obvious to most any reasonable observer of the sport, easily logically deduced and empirically proven by decades of evidence. Yet it seems of late that Djokovic no longer exists within the boundaries of logic; no matter how close to defeat he is taken or how many times he is taken there, he wages a successful comeback in absolutely every instance. Other players have won or come close to winning four Majors consecutively before, but they have done so by simply dominating the rest of the field; I do not think there is anything remotely close to a precedent for doing so while winning six five-set matches, mounting three different rallies from two sets to none-- two of those against men who are themselves winners of 10 or more Major titles-- and three different rallies from breaks down in potentially or assuredly match-deciding sets, saving a total of (at least) six match points in the process. It is as though the laws of nature and of logic bend themselves into conformity with Novak Djokovic's title aspirations.

So how, precisely, is this happening? Has Djokovic struck a deal with the devil? Does he (or his parents?) call on some form of occult magic to conjure victory where it appears lost to the agency of mortals? Insofar as I am aware, there is no rule prohibiting witchcraft in tennis, but I do suppose that support for such a regulation might gather momentum in the event of the discovery that the world's number one was dabbling in such methods to maintain his edge. Take heed, Djokovic; should you somehow pull this one off, my suspicions will only be strengthened.

UPDATE: It appears Mr. Djokovic is exonerated, or at the least that Nadal's Grand Slam clay-craft trumps his witchery.

Semi-prospective predictions

As Federer and Nadal wrestle over the first set of their Australian Open semi-final- a match whose materialization is a particularly-remarkable occurrence in that it represents the first instance in which these two have been so much as drawn in the same half of a Major draw since the 2005 French Open (including the last year, during which time they were not the top two seeds, but the draws continued to yield the same Nadal/Murray and Federer/Djokovic semifinal pairings which have predominated for the last several years, arousing the suspicions of some fans)- I wish to offer a brief list of predictions for the world's top four players, and for the 2011 season as a whole:

-I expect Djokovic to win at least one Major, and possibly two, but probably not three or more as with last year. During the the Open Era of tennis (the late 1960s through present), let it be noted, Rod Laver won all four Majors in 1969, but failed to win any the following season; Jimmy Connors won three of the four Majors in 1974, but failed to win any the following season; and Rafael Nadal won three of the four Majors in 2010, but won only one the following season. Only the historically-unique Roger Federer has ever been able to replicate such a season- and great as he clearly is, I do not ultimately believe Djokovic to be another Federer. Winning percentage in the mid-to-upper 80s, favorite to retain the world's-number-one ranking.

-I give Nadal better-than-50% odds at capturing another major this season, and better-than-a-one-in-three likelihood for two; he must fairly be accounted the favorite at the French Open (albeit not nearly so securely as in past seasons to my mind), and among the top three choices for each of the other Majors.

-Here, I will make a rare mildly-bold prediction and forecast a Roger Federer Major championship in 2012. It may be that the temporary momentum generated by Roger's recent winning streak is skewing my judgment, but as I expect Djokovic will probably not be able to replicate last year's superhuman standard of play, and Nadal will likely be up and down with injuries and fluctuations in form, the window appears open to me for an inspired Federer to seize the day at least once. With two-thirds' likelihood, Federer to win at least one Grand Slam title.

-Now, having all but already predicted away all four Majors between the top three, I have left little room here for Scotland's Andy Murray; however, remembering that each of the above were mere "probabilities" allowing sizable gaps, I will grant that Murray- under the tutelage of Ivan Lendl, whose career through Murray's age was strikingly similar to that of said newly-acquired protege- may finally be ready to perform at the crucial moment. This year, I allot Murray roughly a 40% likelihood of claiming a Major title, but will make an exception here and extend my forecast to give him a 60% chance at securing one sometime within the next two years. I will also state that I am on his side, inasmuch as his continual frustration over the last three-and-a-half years has earned my sympathy, and that I most earnestly hope (even as I doubt) that he can upset Djokovic tomorrow night.

A few more miscellaneous predictions:

-Raonic to reach the quarterfinals at either Wimbledon or the US Open (better than 50%)
-Roddick to return to the top 10 (better than 50%)
-Ferrer to fall from the top 5 (better than two-thirds)
-At least one "surprise" finalist to reappear in a Grand Slam (remembering that the last five Major finals have been contested exclusively by members of the big four)