Upsets, Resurgences and Semifinal Previews in Cincinnati

Before going into the title-relevant portion of this post, I will make a brief digression to note the ultimate prescience of the "dubious" prediction about last week's Federer-Djokovic referenced in the previous entry, which wound up panning out exactly along the lines I had suggested; I needed only have more faith in the face of the ugly start Djokovic had made at the time of publishing. Anyway, on to more pertinent matters.

In contrast to the neatly-unfolding draw seen last week in Canada (all four top seeds reaching the semifinals for the first time in decades), the Cincinnati event has been a thoroughly unpredictable and turbulent affair thus far. Notably, three of the top four were derailed in the quarterfinals today: a shaky Rafael Nadal fell this evening in a nail-biter against Marcos Baghdatis, the resurgent Cypriot who has been a major player in the US Open Series and had already downed Marin Cilic and Tomas Berdych earlier in the draw, Novak Djokovic suffered his fourth consecutive defeat to Andy Roddick, who, with back-to-back wins over top five opponents within a 24-hour span, has reestablished himself as a top 10 player and factor in the upper echelon of the men's game, and Andy Murray was edged by Mardy Fish, who continues to ride a streak of career-best form which has propelled his ranking from just inside the top 100 to within the top 25 over the course of two-and-a-half months. Only Roger Federer held to seeding, taking out Nikolay Davydenko 6-4, 7-5.

This leaves us with a pair of fascinating semifinal encounters: an all-American clash between Roddick and Fish alongside a rematch of the 2006 Australian Open final between Federer and Baghdatis. Not only are both of these match-ups juicy in their own right, but any of the possible pairings for the final will yield considerable dramatic possibilities as well. So, to offer my thoughts:

Roddick-Fish
Historically, Fish has been a veritable stool pigeon for his good friend and compatriot. Roddick holds a 9-2 career head-to-head advantage, including a win in the final of this very event back in 2003. This, however, is an instance in which I lend less weight than usual to head-to-head history, as Fish is in the midst of an aforementioned career-peak run of play, while Roddick is just coming out of a partially illness-induced down period, which included a loss to the red-hot Fish last month in Atlanta- their last, and perhaps most relevant, meeting. Given Roddick's newfound momentum in the aftermath of back-to-back top five victories, Fish's historical tendency to come up just short in the biggest matches, and the aforementioned head-to-head, I do believe Roddick is properly considered the favorite for tomorrow, but would not encourage anyone to put money down on this match, which I expect to be close and hotly-contested.

Federer-Baghdatis
Here, I must first divulge that Marcos Baghdatis has long had a place among my premier rooting interests on the ATP tour, and that, though I feel no personal dislike and have great respect for Federer, I find no compelling reason to root for a man who has already accomplished more than one could ever reasonably hope for in a tennis career, and am unspeakably tired of watching him crush the hopes and dreams of my personal favorites. Accordingly, I am far from impartial in analyzing this match-up, and admit that it could be wishful thinking which casts it in my mind as competitive. Nevertheless, I will say that I view this encounter, which sees Baghdatis entering on perhaps his best run of play in over four years against a Federer who has struggled all year since the Australian Open, as a virtual toss-up, though I will once again err on the side of history and big-match experience in saying that Federer is deservedly the favorite.